The Department of Health (DOH) has warned of the possibility of another COVID-19 surge in May if people will continue to disregard the existing minimum health standards.

Projections from DOH experts said that active cases may go as high as half a million in Metro Manila if the decline in minimum health standards continues.

The DOH said that a 50% decrease in the compliance of MPHS in the National Capital Region (NCR) may result in 25,000 to 60,000 new COVID-19 cases per day next month.

“This may bring the number of NCR active cases to almost half a million by mid-May – more than three times higher than the active cases during the Omicron wave’s peak,” the DOH said in a statement.

According to the DOH model, a 20% decrease in MPHS compliance nationwide may lead to around 34,788 active COVID-19 cases by mid-May.

“A 30% decrease in MPHS compliance might increase the cases further, possibly to as high as 300,000 over the same period,” the DOH added.

“This figure is higher than the largest recorded number of active cases at 291,618 during the peak of the Omicron wave in January 2022,” the DOH said.

DOH Spokesperson Maria Rosario Vergeire reminded the public to cooperate in order to prevent the surge in COVID-19 cases.